The Substack and this companion website are broadly concerned with the following two questions:
- What does the study of risky decision makingDecisions can be categorized based on the amount and nature of information available and decision scientists have developed somewhat standard definitions of the terms "risk",... “in the wild” have to teach cognitive psychologists and behavioral economists about how people make judgments and decisions?
- What does decision science, broadly construed, have to teach casino gamblers (and others intrigued by why and how people gamble) about the accuracy and effectiveness of strategies for—and beliefs about—winning?
In examining those questions, it this provide:
- rich detail on a variety of casino gamblers’ beliefs about—and strategies for—winning,
- an evaluation of the truth and effectiveness of those beliefs and strategies,
- and a consideration as to why the beliefs that seem wrong or ineffective are so compelling to the gamblers themselves.
The questions are examined from the perspective of:
- probability theory,
- behavioral economics,
- cognitive psychology,
- and cultural anthropology.
The essays are informed by more than two years spent as a participant–observer in and around casinos in Prague (Czech Republic), in Las Vegas (on and off the Strip), and on riverboats in northwestern Indiana. That work formed the basis of PhD dissertation in the Department of Psychology and the Committee on Human Development (now the Department of Comparative Human Development) at the University of Chicago. It included, or was complemented by:
- Training in the psychology of judgment and decision making, cultural psychology, and cognitive anthropology;
- Regular engagement with clinical psychologists and others focused on problem and pathological gambling;
- Reading—and sometimes carefully studying—a wide variety of books on how to win (or at least to lose less) at various casino games, including blackjackBlackjack, also referred to as 21, is a popular casino card game where players attempt to have a hand value closer to 21 than the... More, rouletteRoulette is a popular casino table game originating from France. Players place bets on either a single number, various groupings of numbers, the colors red... More, slot machinesSlot machines, also known as a fruit machines (e.g., in the United Kingdom), pokies (e.g., in Australia), one-armed bandits, or simply slots, are games of... More, and poker;
- Hundreds of hours counting cardsBasic Strategy The basic strategy, or just basic, is the best way to play each hand without keeping track of cards removed from play during... in casino blackjack in Las Vegas, Nevada and Prague, Czech Republic;
- Training and certification to become a casino blackjack dealerA "croupier" is primarily a European term, referring to the casino game attendant responsible for managing the betting and game actions of table games, especially... at a dealer school in Indiana;
- Six months working as a blackjack dealer on the Nevada border with California, engaging with players about their strategies and taking field notes during breaks;
- Brief (15–30 minute) surveys and interviews with 136 gamblers on the casino floor at a large casino on the Las Vegas strip, about why they gamble and about their strategies for—and beliefs about—winning;
- Long (1–5 hour) qualitative interviews outside the casinos with three dozen gamblers and casino employees about why they and others gamble and about their strategies for—and beliefs about—winning.
The Substack essays are expected to be relevant to a wide variety of audiences, including:
- Behavioral economists and cognitive psychologists focused on the psychology of judgment and decision making who are interested in “decision making in the wild” and how that focus on culture, built environments, expertise, and decisions from experienceDecisions from Experience vs Decisions from Description "Decisions from description" and "decisions from experience" are two paradigms in the experimental study of behavioral decision making.... help inform their understanding of decision processes;
- Casino gamblers and others who like to think about gambling strategies and their effectiveness and who want a better understanding of them and of whether and why they work;
- Cultural and environmental psychologists, cognitive anthropologists, and others thoughtfully engaged with decision science who are disappointed with the narrow focus on abstract, mathematical normative modelsDecision scientists often distinguish between normative and descriptive models of decision making, and less often add the additional distinction between normative and prescriptive models. Normative... (rational choice theoryLink to Wikipedia entry More) and inbuilt, species-general descriptive (heuristics and biasesIn decision science, bias refers to systematic and predictable deviations from accepted models of rationality. In scientific language, "systematic" and "predictable" are not meant to...), both of which are largely content– and context–independent, largely ignoring the role of experience, much less experience embedded in a physical, historical, and cultural context
- Armchair scientists and educated non-scientists interested in better understanding human rationality and irrationality from a broad social-scientific perspective;
- Clinical psychologists and others who are engaged with problem and pathological gamblers, who recognize that their own understanding of the casino context and what is rational or irrational about gambling may be partial (biased or inadequate), and who want a more nuanced and informed perspective of that context.
If you’re passionate about this topic, I encourage you to subscribe to the Substack and to comment and otherwise engage with the content. I recognize that—as with all points of view—mine is partial (in both senses of the word). The more it can be corrected or complemented by others, the better!