basic strategy and card counting

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Table Of Contents
  1. Basic Strategy
  2. Card Counting

Basic Strategy

The basic strategy, or just basic, is the best way to play each hand without keeping track of cards removed from play during previous betting rounds (that is, without “counting cards”), assuming that the player’s goal is to maximize expected value. It is often referred colloquially as playing by the book. The strategy depends on the make up of both the player’s cards and the dealer’s up-card, and it varies slightly depending on the particular blackjack rules (which vary by location and often even across tables at the same casino). It is noteworthy that while players frequently refer to basic strategy and many believe they know the strategy, few players actually know the correct version completely, and fewer still choose to play according to it, despite the fact that the basic strategy is readily available and can be learned from scratch within a couple of hours. Basic strategy charts for particular casino rules are published in most books on counting cards, basic-strategy generators are freely available on the Internet, and some casinos hand out credit-card side basic strategy charts that players can use at the table (although not always with the correct strategy given the casino’s rules). Here’s a basic-strategy generator from the Wizard of Odds website, which is one of the better online sources for casino game probabilities and analysis. Here’s an example of a Basic Strategy table given a particular set of rules from that same website:

Card Counting

Card counting is a blackjack system whereby players track the distribution of remaining cards and adjust their bet size and playing strategy accordingly, allowing players to gain an edge over the casino. Contrary to popular belief, card counting doesn’t involve remembering every card played or making intricate probability calculations. Indeed, the true probabilities of blackjack were elusive, with even scholarly articles from the late 1950s containing minor inaccuracies. It wasn’t until Monte Carlo simulations in the 1960s clarified the exact probabilities that statisticians could rectify previous mistakes. Rather than diving into complex calculations, card counters typically rely on basic arithmetic, adding or subtracting small values (often just +1 and -1) depending on whether the cards removed help or hurt the player. There are many different card counting strategies, usually seeking to balance accuracy with simplicity so that players can get a sufficient advantage while minimizing cognitive load and player error.

The correct basic strategy and the first demonstrably effective card counting systems were originally developed and popularized by the mathematician and investor, Edward O. Thorp. His 1962 book, “Beat the Dealer,” revolutionized how the game was played by providing mathematically proven methods for players to gain an edge over the house. To perfect these strategies, Thorp collaborated with Julian Braun at IBM to run Monte Carlo simulations to determine the best way to play each hand and the statistical impact of removing different cards from play. Prior to the publication of Beat the Dealer, blackjack was a minor casino table game. After its publication and into the the new millennium with the renewed popularity of poker, and in particular Texas Holdem, blackjack became the most popular casino table game, with credit going to card counting systems and the widespread recognition that it is theoretically possible to beat the game.

It’s important to remember, however, that while card counting can provide a theoretical edge over the house, its practical application requires discipline, a sizable bankroll, the ability to avoid detection, and favorable game conditions. Moreover, casinos are aware of card counting techniques and have implemented measures to counteract them, such as multi-deck shoes, continuous shuffling machines, and banning suspected card counters. Casinos could, of course, just shuffle the cards after every betting round, making card counting a non-issue. While this eliminates the threat to casinos that players might gain an edge in the game, it has the unwanted side-effect of deterring the vast majority of players who made blackjack so popular and who were drawn to the game by the possibility of beating the house, but who lacked the necessary knowledge and training to actually get an edge.

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