For a more detailed, historical consideration of expected value, with more complicated detailed, complex examples of how to calculate it, see the Casino Cognition Substack essay from January 2025 here. Expected value or EV is the average return one can expect to get from a repeated decision, such as from a gamble, if it is […]
The gambling metaphorThe gambling metaphorThe gambling metaphor is the idea that life itself can be conceived of as a gamble. The metaphor has been central to the history of... More is the idea that life itself can be conceived of as a gamble. The metaphor has been central to the history of… More is the idea that life itself can be conceived of as a gamble. The metaphor has been central to the history of the study of judgment and
Daniel KahnemanDaniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky are pioneering Israeli psychologists whose collaboration profoundly impacted the the science of judgment and decision making and behavioral economics. Their... More and Amos TverskyDaniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky are pioneering Israeli psychologists whose collaboration profoundly impacted the the science of judgment and decision makingThe term behavioral decision sciences refers to an interdisciplinary field that combines psychology, economics, statistics, computer science, and management science to understand how individuals, groups,... More and behavioral economics. Their… More are pioneering Israeli psychologists whose collaboration profoundly impacted the the science of judgment and decision makingThe term behavioral decision sciences refers to an interdisciplinary field
Kahneman and Tversky Read More »
Decision scientists often distinguish between normative and descriptive models of decision making, and less often add the additional distinction between normative and prescriptive modelsDecision scientists often distinguish between normative and descriptive models of decision making, and less often add the additional distinction between normative and prescriptive modelsDecision scientists often distinguish between normative and descriptive models of decision making, and less often add the additional distinction between normative and prescriptive models. Normative... More. Normative… More. Normative Models Normative models are models
normative, descriptive, and prescriptive decision theory Read More »
Link to Wikipedia entry The representativeness heuristicLink to Wikipedia entry The representativeness heuristicLink to Wikipedia entry The representativeness heuristic is one of the most widely researched and demonstrated cognitive heuristics (short cuts or rules of thumb putatively... is one of the most widely researched and demonstrated cognitive heuristics (short cuts or rules of thumb putatively… is one of the most widely researched and demonstrated cognitive heuristics (short cuts or rules of thumb putatively built in to the human cognitive
representativeness heuristic Read More »
In decision scienceThe term behavioral decision sciencesThe term behavioral decision sciences refers to an interdisciplinary field that combines psychology, economics, statistics, computer science, and management science to understand how individuals, groups,... More refers to an interdisciplinary field that combines psychology, economics, statistics, computer science, and management science to understand how individuals, groups,… More, “utility” refers to a quantitative measure representing an individual’s preference or satisfaction with respect to a particular outcome. In this framework, utilityIn decision science, “utility” refers to
